Oecds dissemination platform for all published content books, serials and statistics. How to feed the world in 2050 food and agriculture. Eu leaders also invited the commission to prepare a proposal for the eus longterm strategy as early as possible in 2020, with a view to its adoption by the council and its submission to the united nations. By 2030, this translates into pv generating 505 terawatthours twh per. Introduction the sharp increases in food prices that occurred in global and national markets in recent years, and the resulting increases in the number of hungry and malnourished people, have sharpened the awareness of policymakers and of the general public to the fragility of the global food system. However, assessing the future is a complex and multifaceted undertaking. Agrimonde scenarios and challenges for feeding the world.
Scenarios for a sustainable future organisation for economic cooperation and development analysing the interaction between energy and climate change mitigation issues requires the adoption of a longterm perspective looking up to fifty years ahead. We live in a world characterised by increasing complexity and uncertainty. The most comprehensive set of results for impact are published in the book global food projections to 2020. The shell scenarios team brings together experts from an array of disciplines to understand versions of the future. Pdf eu energy, transport and ghg emissions trends to 2050. In this instance, existing development trends are extrapolated into the future. In developing this website, a students guide to global climate change, epa tried to use the most accurate, uptodate information available. Eu energy, transport and ghg emissions trends to 2050, reference scenario 20. A scenario study 11 alternative visions help us to sense a shifting environment much better than any extrapolation of isolated trends could do. In both scenarios, the models are used to develop a leastcost. Three scenarios of africas future economic trajectory through 2050 are presented in chapter 3. Two scenarios on the 2050 timeline are then considered. Acknowledgements our thanks go to shell colleagues and the many external experts who have contributed to the development of these shell energy scenarios.
The menu of resource options available for consideration is shown in table ii. This latest publication presents five farranging, at times even radical visions of life in the year 2050 and their implications for the logistics industry. This open access book presents detailed pathways to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2050, globally and across ten geographical regions. Cmip6 reference scenario, with factor of two amplification by solar indirect effects. The world in 2050 future study presented by frank appel. It also describes the main categories of alternative scenarios, and links to tables that describe model settings in detail for each scenario. Achieving the paris climate agreement goals global and.
How to feed the world in 2050, to be convened at fao headquarters in rome on 12 october 2009. The annual energy outlook presents an assessment by the u. A reference scenario can assume the form of a trend scenario. For example, africa was 227 million in 1950, yet it is projected to be almost 2 billion by 2050. Agrimonde go is a trendbased scenario that bets on economic growth to feed the world, in a context where environmental protection is not a priority. Description of scenarios in the energy roadmap 2050.
Eighteen scenarios vary a single element or assumption, and hold all others the same as in the reference case scenario. Thats why we have invited renowned academics and distinguished experts from a variety of fields and. No trade liberalization or reduction in sectoral protection is assumed for the reference scenario. New euscale environmental scenarios until 2050 scenario process and. A field guide to the future paperback march 27, 2012. In the case of the shell energy scenarios to 2050, the word acryonym. Scenarios for 2050 for a 2degrees world page 6 hydrogen, produced by near zero emission sources. Find all the books, read about the author, and more. Scenario analysis introduction insight2050 is an effort to prepare central ohio for future growth.
Feb 24, 2012 join us on our journey into the year 2050. The key results of the etp scenario are shown in figure 26. Eu energy, transport and ghg emissions trends to 2050 6 eu reference scenario 2016 2. Chart data can be accessed by rightclicking the chart in the ppt file. Shell energy scenarios shell longterm energy scenarios to 2050. The share of alternative electricity production also increases substantially, representing 44 percent in 2050.
This article gives some scenarios of the future of food toward 2050. The future we choose, a new book by the architects of the paris climate. It contains case studies on significant scenarios that have helped expand our leaders thinking on economic, political and social challenges of their time. The european council endorsed in december 2019 the objective of making the eu climateneutral by 2050, in line with the paris agreement. They based their participatory scenarios on three components of a scenario framework. A vivid forecast of our planet in the year 2050 by a rising star. Impacts of increased adoption of ocean power from 20202050 were generated based on two growth scenarios, which were assessed in comparison to a reference scenario where the solutions market share was fixed at the current levels.
The maximum practical scenario would lead to approximately 240 million phevs on the road by 2050, the end of the scenario period. Scenarios institute for natural resources oregon state. Eu energy, transport and ghg emissions trends to 2050 eu reference scenario 2016 3 this publication was prepared for the directorategeneral for energy, the directorategeneral for climate action and the directorategeneral for mobility and transport by the e3mlab of the institute of. Only those who think about alternatives can devise robust strategies. Air is cleaner than before the industrial revolution. Despite the economic turbulence, the fundamental drivers and uncertainties explored in our shell energy scenarios to 2050 remain fully relevant. Selector blocks like this can be identified as they have a grey box in column a, indicating which scenario is currently chosen. Feb 16, 2020 cmip6 reference scenario, with factor of two amplification by solar indirect effects.
Eu reference scenario 2016 energy, transport and ghg. In our case, there should be an arrow leading to cell c56 which is part of the 2050 technology mix selector block. This seems sensible, as were looking at parameters for 2050 technology mix. By 2050, atlantica, a new country, controlled the aquifer and unexpectedly decided to use this water resource to gain concessions from its neighboring countries.
By 2050, the number of people per square mile will increase to 67. Fourpronged projected economic scenario, 20102050 note. Eu reference scenario 2016 energy, transport and ghg emissions trends to 2050. European commission directorate general for energy, directorate general for climate action and directorate general for mobility and transport, luxembourg. The low carbon scenario assumes the introduction of a range of policies leading to an 80% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.
In this scenario, the clinker to cement ratio is 0. Sunshot vision study examines the potential pathways, barriers, and. So if you are responsible for your organisations longterm viability, this is the best overview and howto primer out there. The costs and consequences of deploying phevs into the u. Eu energy, transport and ghg emissions trends to 2050 reference scenario 20 european commission directorategeneral for energy, directorategeneral for climate action and directorategeneral for. In order to achieve the benefits associated with the scenario development process, such as joint learning, the development of consensus about goals or to improve the ability to deal with uncertainty in decision making, it is necessary to involve the relevant stakeholder groups in the development process case.
Shell energy scenarios shell longterm energy scenarios to. Based on stateoftheart scenario modelling, it provides the vital missing link between renewable energy targets and the measures needed to achieve them. It seems that a more pervasive pressure towards emission reduction is required, also influencing the basic fabric of society in terms of types and volumes of energy use, materials use and transport. The projected area of land in developed use is higher in the high population growth highpop scenario and the urban expansion urbexpand scenario. A reference scenario is an imagined situation where a library patron brings a question to a librarian and there is then a conversation, called in the field a reference interview, where the librarian works to help the patron find what he or she wants. But many areas of the western world are not projected to grow nearly as fast as others. The 2050 reference scenario depicts energy and greenhouse gas ghg emission developments on the basis of policies implemented up to march 2010, mirroring as well the achievement of the legally binding 2020 targets on renewables res and ghg and the implementation of the ets directive. This corresponds to an adoption of alternative cements equivalent to 39% and mitigation result equates to. The reference scenario is modeled with moderate solar energy price reductions to enable comparison of the costs, benefits, and challenges relative to the reference case of achieving the sunshot price targets.
Pacific northwest low carbon scenario analysis to meet the residual energy and capacity needs of the system in each policy scenario, resolve selects new investments needed in tenyear increments between 2020 and 2050. Energy, transport and ghg emissions trends to 2050. Shell longterm energy scenarios shell energy scenarios to 2050. Two scenarios are built on agrimonde foresight models, which address challenges for feeding the world agrimonde, 2009. Why we should think in scenarios and dare to look to 2050.
The reference scenario is based on policies that were firm and funded at the time of the 2007 energy white paper with no subsequent additions. As directed, the objectives of this planning cycle are to analyze the maximum level of grid decarbonization achievable at a reasonable cost without sacrificingreliability, while. Ongoing extreme weather and resource degradation continue to multiply. Its time horizon as in the 20 version is up to 2050 and it includes all eu28 member. The scenarios were developed with entennial group internationals global economy model which was also used in. Information on the environment for those involved in developing, adopting, implementing and evaluating environmental policy, and also the general public. Impacts of increased adoption of alternative cement from 2020 2050 were generated based on two growth scenarios, which were assessed in comparison to the reference scenario. Vision 2050 sustainable development knowledge platform. Impacts of increased adoption of alternative cement from 20202050 were generated based on two growth scenarios, which were assessed in comparison to the reference scenario.
New euscale environmental scenarios until 2050 scenario. A reference scenario can also consist of a null scenario. The conceptual framework and methods for integrative scenario development mainly followed priess and hauck 2014. After reading wades book, you will surely realise that by not introducing scenario thinking into your company, you are practically condemning it to exactly that fate. Eu reference scenario 2016 publications office of the eu. These scenarios are used in training future librarians how to help patrons. Reading a book can alter your state of consciousness.
These have been woven together into a scenario based on achieving norms by 2050 that were identified and rated by millennium project participants from. This is the scenario for kurt sloan, who decides to escape atlantica by hiking a long forgotten trail. Cities and regions take the lead in this scenario, and provide. This report is an update of the previous reference scenario published in 20. For every human being in africa in 1950, there will be nine in 2050. The third scenario ensues from analyzing alternative futures for agricultural supply and demand, and food security. The future availability of cobalt for the mass production of libs has to be. The latter peaks around 2015 and has a 16 gt total by 2050.
It focuses on the eu energy system, transport and greenhouse gas ghg emission developments, including specific sections on emission trends not related to energy, and on the various interactions among policies in these sectors. Pdf eu energy, transport and ghg emissions trends to. Dec 16, 20 eu energy, transport and ghg emissions trends to 2050, reference scenario 20. The highpop scenario includes population growth rates within ugbs that are doubled relative to the reference scenario. The constitution takes up this challenge by directly institutionalising the national goals and.
Analysing the interaction between energy and climate change mitigation issues requires the adoption of a longterm perspective looking up to fifty years ahead. Cmip6 maunder minimum scenario, with factor of four amplification by solar indirect effects note. His journey, filled with unexpected events and people, is woven with these natural and human changes in the world of 2050. Published in 20, this book is a commemoration of four decades of the scenario making practice in shell. A reference scenario serves as a background against which one or more other scenarios can be viewed. At the expert meeting in june there was consensus among participants that it should be possible to produce enough food in 2050 to meet the needs of a world population that will. Scenario building and its application openness project. Three scenarios vary multiple elements relative to the reference case scenario.
The impacts on fuel consumption and welltowheel co 2 emissions were then calculated using a modified version. With the region slated to grow by up to 1 million people and an additional 300,000 jobs by 2050, insight2050 is designed to provide local and regional policy makers, business leaders, developers, and public stakeholders with. New policy scenarios an overview sciencedirect topics. Eu energy, transport and ghg emissions trends to 2050 eu reference scenario 2016 3 this publication was prepared for the directorategeneral for energy, the directorategeneral for cli. References a students guide to global climate change. Shell scenarios since the 1970s have helped us understand how the world and its energy system could evolve in decades to come. It is important to keep in mind, however, that none of these scenarios reflects our definite view of how the future will, in fact, develop. Summarized below are the key studies that the national research council nrc committee on transitions to alternative vehicles and fuels considered in its analysis. Many studies have examined the potential for greenhouse gas ghg emissions reductions in the u. These scenarios continue to provide useful insights and we draw on them in this booklet. The share of lowcarbon power capacity increases over time, ultimately reaching 52 percent in 2050. Energy information administration of the outlook for energy markets through 2050. Understanding the opportunities and challenges that come with different new and emerging clean energy technologies is central for improved energy and environmental policy making first issued in 2006, energy technology perspectives etp has for more than a decade contributed to global energy and environmental policymaking. Adding phev10s to that mix can reduce consumption by another 7 percent, while phev40s could account.
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